2026 Energy Shock Sees Commodity Prices Decline Amid US-Iran Ceasefire

crude oil prices have decreased by 15% from their peak during the US-Iran war, which occurred between February 28 and April 7, 2026.

This peak was approximately 19% below the all-time high recorded in 2008 in nominal terms. TTF natural gas prices have fallen 18% from the 2026 peak and stand 79% below the 2022 peak. German power prices are down 5% from the war peak and have returned to levels below those prior to the conflict.

Asian coal prices have declined by 1% from the peak and remain 66% below the 2022 high. These reductions reflect a partial easing of the energy shock initiated by the war.

the US-Iran War The US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, leading to disruptions in global energy markets.

Peak prices across commodities were set during the conflict period ending April 7, 2026. A ceasefire has been announced, though its practical implications for energy supply remain unclear. The Strait of Hormuz has not yet reopened following the war.

Javier Blas reported that the status of energy flows through the strait depends on the ceasefire's implementation. This closure continues to affect global oil and gas shipments.

the ceasefire, no confirmed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has occurred.

Energy flows through the strait are uncertain, potentially prolonging supply constraints. Current price declines indicate market anticipation of resolution, but risks persist. The 2026 energy shock has been less severe than prior crises in nominal terms.

Brent oil's current level is below the 2008 peak, while natural gas and power prices show even steeper drops from 2022 highs. Monitoring post-ceasefire developments will be essential for market stability.