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New research identifies reefs across 71 countries that may survive future warming. Only 28 percent currently have formal protection.
Inside Climate NewsA new global assessment has identified more than 64,000 square miles of coral reefs that researchers say show potential to endure future warming. The 50 Reefs+ study, released Tuesday by the Wildlife Conservation Society and Macquarie University, expands on a 2018 assessment and covers reefs in 71 countries and 100 territories.
The study draws on more than 45,000 coral field observations collected between 1960 and 2025, combined with climate, oceanographic and human-impact data.
Researchers used the data to locate reefs that can avoid, resist or recover from heat stress and other disturbances such as cyclones. More than half of the identified reefs are concentrated in Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The analysis adds 30 countries and 54 territories not included in the 2018 assessment, including newly identified resilient areas in Belize, Panama and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SkyTruth produced the accompanying global map using satellite imagery and artificial intelligence. “Coral reefs are often framed as ecosystems beyond saving,” said Emily Darling, a co-author and director of coral reefs at the Wildlife Conservation Society.
” Just 28 percent of the identified climate-resilient reefs fall within protected or conserved areas, leaving approximately 46,000 square miles without formal safeguards.
The study’s findings were presented at the Our Ocean Conference, held June 16-18 in Mombasa, Kenya. On Tuesday, Kenya signed the first high-level global commitment to protect climate-resilient coral reefs. More than a dozen other governments have pledged to use the data to guide future conservation priorities.
The 2018 50 Reefs assessment helped secure more than $100 million in conservation funding. The new study calls on governments to incorporate the findings into national strategies aimed at meeting the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of conserving at least 30 percent of the world’s land, inland waters and oceans by 2030.
“They can combine these global predictions with their own data, local knowledge and priorities to inform their decisions,” said Joseph Maina, a co-author and associate professor at Macquarie University.
In the Turks and Caicos Islands, Alizee Zimmermann, executive director of the Turks and Caicos Reef Fund, welcomed the identification of resilient reefs but urged caution. “The narrative that Caribbean reefs are simply ‘dead’ is inaccurate and can be harmful to progress on reef restoration and protection initiatives in the region,” she said.
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