science
AccuWeather Issues Hurricane Season Forecast Amid Possible El Niño Development
AccuWeather has forecasted a near- to below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 11 to 16 named storms, despite the expected arrival of El Niño conditions. The forecast attributes reduced activity to El Niño's influence on wind shear, though warm Atlantic waters could lead to rapid intensification. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Apr 10, 10:19 AM·1m read1 source
Substrate placeholder — needs reviewAudio version
Tap play to generate a narrated version.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, indicating near- to below-historical-average activity, influenced by the anticipated development of El Niño conditions. El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño forms when trade winds along the equator weaken, allowing warm surface waters to shift eastward toward the western coast of the Americas. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this pattern shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, leading to drier and warmer conditions in the northern United States and Canada, and wetter conditions in the southern United States.
El Niño can also affect hurricane activity by increasing wind shear in the Atlantic basin, which disrupts storm organization.
Experts state that while El Niño may reduce the total number of storms, it does not eliminate risks to the U.S. coast. Very warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico could still fuel rapid intensification of storms. Early-season storms are possible due to these warm waters in the western Atlantic and Gulf.
If El Niño intensifies during the season's peak, later months may see quieter conditions.
explained that El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but more activity in the eastern and central Pacific.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, while the eastern Pacific season started on May 15 and also runs through November 30. Coastal residents and emergency officials in hurricane-prone areas, including the southeastern United States, Gulf Coast, and Caribbean, face potential impacts from any storms that form.
