Al-Shabaab Advances in South-Central Somalia as Federal Authority Weakens

Al-Shabaab has reclaimed territory across Lower Shabelle and Middle Jubba since February 2025 and now runs checkpoints on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The group collects taxes according to a published schedule and issues receipts that prevent double taxation at subsequent stops.

A Mogadishu-based NGO director told The New Humanitarian last September that traders can appeal assessments to al-Shabaab courts. Federal government roadblocks, by contrast, collect bribes that soldiers keep, leading to repeated demands at each checkpoint.

Parliament approved constitutional amendments on 4 March that extend the presidential term from four to five years. Opposition figures, including former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, said the session lacked the required quorum. Puntland withdrew recognition of the federal government in March 2024, Jubaland suspended cooperation in November 2024, and South West State joined them in March 2025.

Federal and Jubaland troops clashed near Ras Kamboni in late November 2024. He remained in office while opposition leaders, including former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi 'Farmajo' Mohamed, rejected the extension. Three days of U.S. and U.K.-brokered talks collapsed in late May, and federal troops exchanged fire with opposition forces in Mogadishu on 7 June.

Al-Shabaab's finance ministry sorts checkpoint taxes into four streams: transit, goods, crops, and livestock. The ministry added a levy on scrap metal last year and maintains an asset registry used to assess a 2.5 percent annual zakat. Western analysts estimate the group's annual revenue from taxation, extortion, port levies, and real estate at $100 million to $150 million.