Analysis Examines Perceptions of Victory in U.S.-Iran Conflict

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire on April 8, according to an analysis published in Foreign Affairs on April 21. Negotiations in Islamabad have not yet produced a deal to end the conflict. Both sides have issued statements claiming victory.

On April 11, President Donald Trump stated, 'Regardless of what happens, we win. ' The analysis by Dominic Tierney argues that victory in war is subjective and influenced by factors such as psychology, optics, and political spin, in addition to material outcomes.

The U.S. military conducted operations including assassinations of high-level Iranian leaders, thousands of airstrikes on military targets, and suffered 13 fatalities. Two U.S. planes were downed in Iranian territory, with crew members rescued by special forces.

Tierney notes that the United States inflicted significant damage on Iran’s armed forces while experiencing relatively few losses. However, the analysis suggests that Americans expect wars to result in the total defeat of enemies and regime change, drawing on historical examples like World War II.

In the Korean War, which ended in 1953, the U.S. defended South Korea but public opinion viewed the outcome as a stalemate due to the return to prewar status quo. Similarly, in the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. forces ejected Iraqi troops from Kuwait but left Saddam Hussein in power, leading to public perception of incomplete victory.

and Potential Consequences Iran’s

government has survived the conflict and remains in control, with Ali Khamenei succeeded by his son Mojtaba after his death. An April 8 statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described the cease-fire as a success, stating that enemies expected quick dominance but Iran delivered a powerful response.

Tierney's analysis indicates that as a weaker power, Iran can frame survival as victory despite losses. The cease-fire remains fragile, with governments far apart on issues. If perceptions of U.S. failure and Iranian success persist, the analysis suggests potential political effects, including impacts on U.S. midterm elections in November and possible empowerment of the Iranian government.