Analyst Warns Next India-Pakistan Crisis Would Be Harder for U.S. to Manage

Elizabeth Threlkeld, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, reported that the next crisis between India and Pakistan is likely to prove more dangerous, more destructive, and more difficult for Washington to manage than the one that occurred in May 2025.

The May 2025 conflict began after a terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam Valley in Indian-administered Kashmir. Gunmen killed 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national, targeting them for their Hindu faith. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi blamed Pakistan for the attack and threatened to pursue those responsible.

India responded with diplomatic measures that included suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, which had been in place since 1960, closing the Attari-Wagah border crossing, expelling Pakistani military advisers and canceling visas. Two weeks after the attack, India conducted precision-guided strikes on nine sites in Punjab province and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, reaching deeper into Pakistani territory than any operation since the 1971 war.

Pakistan responded by downing several Indian fighter jets. The exchanges continued with tit-for-tat drone attacks. The fighting reached its peak when India struck at least 11 military sites across Pakistan, including Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi, which is adjacent to the headquarters overseeing Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.

The episode resulted in over 70 casualties and marked the most intense fighting between the two countries since the 1999 Kargil conflict.

Both sides have concluded that future clashes will center on the ability to strike faster, farther and in greater volume. " In response to comments from Indian Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi, Pakistan's military stated it would "shatter the myth of geographic immunity" by hitting distant targets in Indian territory.

The countries have shown increased confidence that more intense conventional fighting would not necessarily lead to nuclear escalation. However, the introduction of novel systems, targets and domains of conflict raises the risk of inadvertent nuclear use even if deliberate nuclear strikes remain unlikely.

The United States initially maintained a hands-off approach to the May 2025 crisis. " The next day, administration officials received intelligence that prompted a policy shift. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio then worked to secure a cease-fire that took effect on May 10.

In his 2026 State of the Union address, President Donald Trump stated that without U.S. efforts the conflict would have become a nuclear war. The comments drew criticism in New Delhi, which has long maintained that its disputes with Pakistan are bilateral matters.

Threlkeld noted that both sides demonstrated caution in past crises but climbed new rungs on the escalation ladder in 2025 without serious repercussions. She stated that Washington's traditional role in facilitating de-escalation will remain important, but future mediation efforts will need to account for a different conflict environment.

The United States and its partners should prepare playbooks for rapid decision-making and support quiet channels between New Delhi and Islamabad, according to Threlkeld. Such steps could help contain the next potential crisis in a region that is home to a quarter of the world's population.