Analyst Warns of Potential Republican Senate Losses in 2026 Midterms

U.S. Senate during the 2026 midterms if President Donald Trump's approval rating remains in the low 40s. Olsen, who predicted Trump's popular vote win, discussed this on Monday's episode of The Megyn Kelly Show podcast.

The GOP currently holds a narrow majority in the Senate. Olsen highlighted a historical pattern in midterms where a president's approval below 45 percent affects down-ballot candidates from the president's party. This pattern is particularly evident in competitive states or those with shifting demographics.

Trump's national approval is currently around the low 40s, according to Olsen.

Texas, Senator Ted Cruz could face a competitive race if Trump's support among Hispanic voters erodes.

Hispanic voters make up about one-quarter of the Texas electorate. Trump performed better with Latino voters in 2024 than previous Republican nominees, but Olsen noted that a return to 2018 or 2020 levels could put the seat at risk. Cruz won his 2018 election by a narrow margin, partly due to Latino support.

If that support aligns with Trump's 2024 performance, the seat would likely remain safe for Republicans. However, even a partial shift in voting patterns, combined with low support among independents, could make the race competitive. In Alaska, the state's politics are candidate-driven and sensitive to national trends.

Olsen identified the seat held by Senator Dan Sullivan as a potential concern if Trump's approval stays low. 5 to 3 percent. Previous polls indicated Peltola led Sullivan by a smaller margin, suggesting her position has strengthened.

Alaska's unconventional voting system increases vulnerability to national backlash against an unpopular president.

Maine, Senator Susan Collins has won reelections by outperforming Republican presidential nominees.

Olsen stated that this approach may face difficulties if Trump's approval remains low. Collins has relied on support from voters who disapprove of Trump. Olsen also mentioned that the House of Representatives is unlikely to remain in Republican control without a significant improvement in Trump's approval.

The focus for Republicans, per Olsen, would then be on holding the Senate. Losing Senate control would limit Trump's legislative effectiveness in the final two years of his term.

“If the president stays where he is, that puts the Senate at risk.”

The 2026 midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress, affecting policy implementation for the remainder of Trump's presidency. States with demographic changes or close races will play a key role in the outcome.