AP-NORC analysis shows Trump approval among independents fell to about one-quarter by spring 2026

Aggregated AP-NORC polling conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 shows that positive views of President Trump among independents without college degrees fell from 48 percent in the months before he returned to office to 31 percent during his first 100 days and then to about one-quarter by spring 2026.

The same analysis found that college-educated independents held similarly negative views, ending an education gap that existed before the second term began. Positive views among this group declined from roughly 30 percent to about one-quarter.

Declines among demographic subgroups Hispanic independents saw favorable ratings drop from 46 percent around the 2024 election to as low as 15 percent during last fall’s government shutdown before settling near one-quarter this spring. Younger independents also recorded lower support, while independents age 60 and older remained largely stable.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis, said independents’ opinions continued to move while Democrats’ and Republicans’ views stayed largely steady. Sean Collins, another co-author, noted that the steeper drop among independents without college degrees was larger than the modest decline among college-educated independents.

The polling compilation covered several periods, including the final months of 2024, the first 100 days of the second term, the summer of 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill passed, last fall’s government shutdown, and the beginning of the Iran war. About 42 percent of independent voters supported Trump in 2024, up from 37 percent in 2020.