Asian Development Bank Raises South Korea 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.6 Percent While Lifting Inflation Outlook

The Asian Development Bank raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for South Korea to 2.6 percent on Thursday, Yonhap reported. The new figure marks a 0.7 percentage point increase from the bank's April report. The ADB also lifted its 2027 growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 2 percent.

Export growth led by global AI demand is expected to serve as the main driver through 2027, the bank said. The semiconductor sector should help counter pressures from energy price swings and supply chain issues. Private consumption is projected to stay steady, supported by a strong stock market, solid tech earnings and government measures.

The ADB flagged long-term energy supply risks, U.S. tariff policies and a possible stock market correction as potential obstacles. Consumer prices are now expected to rise 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027, up 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points from prior estimates, mainly because of higher global energy costs.

Last month the OECD raised its 2026 growth outlook for South Korea to 2.6 percent from 1.7 percent, also pointing to the AI boom. The IMF this week increased its 2026 forecast by 0.7 percentage point to 2.6 percent.