Report Assesses Kremlin Conducted Coordinated Drone Campaign Over Europe

The International Institute for Strategic Studies released a report on July 2 concluding it is highly likely the Kremlin conducted a coordinated UAV campaign over Europe. The assessment covers drone incursions that began in August 2024 and continued through February 2026 across a dozen NATO states and Ireland.

IISS assessed it is likely that Russian-linked vessels and the shadow fleet served as launch and recovery platforms.

Drones of unknown origin were first spotted over RAF Lakenheath in November 2024, followed by sightings over RAF Fairford, RAF Feltwell, and RAF Mildenhall. A public appeal drew roughly 170 reported sightings, about half deemed credible. Witness reports indicated UAVs entered airspace at low altitude with lights visible and departed at higher altitudes, with some observations consistent with multirotor platforms and others with fixed-wing types.

Some observers described propulsion noise more typical of petrol engines than electric motors. The vessel Hav Dolphin, later linked to a 2025 drone incident in Germany, was docked in the UK during the November 2024 incidents. IISS suggested the Russian Orlan-10 drone could have been one platform used, citing its 500 km range, up to 12 hours endurance, and 90–130 km/h speeds.

The Orlan-10 has been in service with Russian Armed Forces since 2010 and is powered by an internal combustion engine. The report noted that use of identifiable Russian UAV platforms carries inherent attribution risk. It presented an alternative hypothesis that commercially available or modified platforms, including long-range FPV systems or home-built fixed-wing aircraft, may have been used.