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The International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded on July 2 that Russia is highly likely responsible for UAV incursions at bases across a dozen NATO countries and Ireland from August 2024 to February 2026. The assessment links the flights to Russian-linked vessels and the shadow fleet.
AP NewsThe International Institute for Strategic Studies released a report on July 2 concluding it is highly likely the Kremlin conducted a coordinated UAV campaign over Europe. The assessment covers drone incursions that began in August 2024 and continued through February 2026 across a dozen NATO states and Ireland.
IISS assessed it is likely that Russian-linked vessels and the shadow fleet served as launch and recovery platforms.
Drones of unknown origin were first spotted over RAF Lakenheath in November 2024, followed by sightings over RAF Fairford, RAF Feltwell, and RAF Mildenhall. A public appeal drew roughly 170 reported sightings, about half deemed credible. Witness reports indicated UAVs entered airspace at low altitude with lights visible and departed at higher altitudes, with some observations consistent with multirotor platforms and others with fixed-wing types.
Some observers described propulsion noise more typical of petrol engines than electric motors. The vessel Hav Dolphin, later linked to a 2025 drone incident in Germany, was docked in the UK during the November 2024 incidents. IISS suggested the Russian Orlan-10 drone could have been one platform used, citing its 500 km range, up to 12 hours endurance, and 90–130 km/h speeds.
The Orlan-10 has been in service with Russian Armed Forces since 2010 and is powered by an internal combustion engine. The report noted that use of identifiable Russian UAV platforms carries inherent attribution risk. It presented an alternative hypothesis that commercially available or modified platforms, including long-range FPV systems or home-built fixed-wing aircraft, may have been used.
No European government has yet publicly tied a specific shadow-fleet vessel to a specific drone incident. In February 2025 The i Paper published an investigation alleging possible Russian involvement, and UK politicians called for further inquiries. The UK MoD investigation into the RAF Lakenheath incidents concluded with no suspects identified.
On or about July 3 the MoD stated it takes base security seriously and is investing in counter-drone capabilities through the Armed Forces Bill. USAFE confirmed small Unmanned Aerial Systems activity took place over several UK installations in 2024, with no impact on personnel or operations.
USAFE said it continues to work with UK partners on installation safety and security but declined to comment on intelligence matters.
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