AST SpaceMobile Shares Fall After Blue Origin Satellite in Wrong Orbit

Shares of AST SpaceMobile fell 8% on Monday after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket placed the company's BlueBird 7 satellite into a lower-than-planned orbit during a launch on Sunday. The satellite was deemed lost, according to statements from both companies. Blue Origin acknowledged the orbital error in a post on X and said it was assessing the situation.

It marked the third flight of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket and would have been AST SpaceMobile's eighth satellite in low-earth orbit. AST SpaceMobile stated in a Sunday press release that the cost of the satellite loss is covered by an insurance policy.

The company added that it still plans to launch satellites on average every one to two months in 2026, with BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 ready to ship in 30 days.

“AST gained experience integrating its satellite with New Glenn and working with the Blue Origin team.”

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote in a Monday note that the company's goal of 45 satellites in orbit by year-end may be challenging to achieve. He noted that the experience could benefit future missions and highlighted that only one satellite was aboard, compared to potential future launches carrying up to eight.

Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy reiterated a buy rating on the stock but reduced his price target to $115 from $137, implying a 34% upside from Friday's close.

UBS analyst Christopher Schoell stated in a note that the financial impact on AST SpaceMobile would be limited. Schoell added that the company's share price performance is now linked to Blue Origin's New Glenn vehicle success, which is key to meeting 2027 revenue goals. Analysts from multiple firms expressed concerns that the uncertainty could initially weigh on investor sentiment.

AST SpaceMobile aims to build a satellite network for cellular connectivity. Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, has not provided updates since acknowledging the issue.

The incident occurred amid the company's efforts to expand its launch capabilities. Analysts agreed the event is not a total setback, with DiPalma describing it as a silver lining due to the limited payload. Pendy's adjusted target still projects significant growth potential for the shares.

The company emphasized that integration experience with Blue Origin will aid future collaborations. Schoell noted that success of the New Glenn rocket is essential for AST SpaceMobile's deployment targets.

No contradictions appeared across reports on the orbital placement or insurance coverage.