Both Parties Maneuver for Control of State Legislatures Ahead of 2028 Redistricting

Forward Majority plans to spend $30 million on two dozen state legislative races this year. S. House seats ahead of 2028.

Leslie Martes, chief executive officer of Forward Majority, said the group is operating in a changed environment. "We're in the Wild West now," she said. Martes noted there are 7,000 legislative districts across the country and added that the organization must focus resources on the right places.

The group is targeting the Arizona State Senate's 17th District, currently held by a Republican. Martes said Kamala Harris won that district even though she did not win Arizona. Forward Majority is also watching eight races across Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that could determine control of legislative chambers representing roughly 42 million Americans.

Martes said the group expects one to two seats in Wisconsin, one to three in Pennsylvania, and at least one in Minnesota. She said Forward Majority bases its assessments on an internal modeling system called Tipping Points that examines demographic and political data at the precinct level. "We win and lose some of these districts by 64 votes," Martes said.

In Texas this year, Republicans enacted a mid-cycle redistricting plan that aims to add five new GOP seats. Democrats responded with their own changes in California. A state Supreme Court decision blocked Virginia's proposed redraw.

The Supreme Court's Callais ruling weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and 10 states ended up with new maps for 2026. Republicans plan further adjustments in states including Georgia and Mississippi ahead of 2028. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is preparing to seek additional Democratic-friendly seats from blue states.

Both parties require control of the state House, state Senate and governor's office to pursue aggressive redistricting before the 2030 census.