OPEC Lowers Q2 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid Iran War
OPEC has reduced its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter of 2026 to 105.07 million barrels per day, down from 105.57 million barrels per day. The organization attributed the revision to the Iran war. OPEC+ crude production averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March 2026, reflecting output cuts by Middle East members.
Walter Siegmund (talk) / Wikimedia (CC BY 2.5)OPEC Revises Down Q2 2026 Oil Demand Forecast OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter of 2026 to 105.
07 million barrels per day, according to data reported by @DeItaone. 57 million barrels per day. OPEC cited the Iran war as the reason for the downward revision. The adjustment affects demand projections across both OECD and non-OECD regions, as stated in the report from @DeItaone.
OPEC maintained its full-year forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027 without changes, per information from @financialjuice.
OPEC+ Production Drops in March 2026 OPEC+ output fell to 35.
06 million barrels per day, based on data from @DeItaone. 06 million barrels per day, according to @FirstSquawk. 70 million barrels per day from February 2026 levels. The decline in production resulted from output cuts by Middle East members of OPEC+, as reported by @FirstSquawk.
These cuts were caused by the Iran war, per the same source. The reductions align with the broader impact of the conflict on regional operations.
Context of Unchanged Annual Projections Despite the quarterly revision, OPEC's outlook for overall global oil demand growth remains steady for the full years of 2026 and 2027.
The organization has not altered these longer-term estimates amid the current developments. The focus on Q2 reflects specific disruptions tied to the Iran war.
Implications for Global Oil Markets The lowered Q2 forecast and production drop highlight the influence of geopolitical events on oil dynamics.
Middle East output adjustments directly contributed to the March figures. OPEC's statements underscore the war's role in these changes without affecting annual growth expectations.
Story Timeline
2 events- March 2026
OPEC+ crude production averaged 35.06 million barrels per day, dropping 7.70 million barrels per day from February due to Middle East output cuts caused by the Iran war.
2 sources@FirstSquawk · @DeItaone - Q2 2026 Forecast (April 2026 update)
OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast to 105.07 million barrels per day from 105.57 million barrels per day, citing the Iran war; full-year 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts unchanged.
2 sources@DeItaone · @financialjuice
Potential Impact
- 01
OPEC+ production drop could tighten short-term oil supply from Middle East.
- 02
Iran war's role in cuts and forecast revision signals ongoing geopolitical risks to oil markets.
- 03
Reduced Q2 oil demand forecast may lead to lower expected consumption in OECD and non-OECD regions.
Transparency Panel
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