Canadian Visits to US Metro Areas Drop 42% Year Over Year

A research tool developed by the University of Toronto that tracks cell phone activity recorded a 42% year-over-year median decline in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas. The figure is significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which showed a roughly 25% decline over the same period.

The analysis examined Canadian devices traveling to US metro areas from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2026. Researchers said the cell phone data captures freight traffic not included in border statistics and can also reflect changes in Canadians who had been living temporarily in the US.

The University of Toronto researchers reported steep declines in visits to cities in New York, New Hampshire and Vermont. Declines were also recorded at major tourist destinations including Las Vegas and Walt Disney World, as well as winter recreation areas in Florida that have traditionally attracted Canadian visitors.

Economies of US border towns that depend on Canadian visitors have reported reduced activity. The data showed lower travel volumes even to locations with strong cross-border economic ties, such as Grand Rapids, Michigan, which has connections to Ontario through the auto industry.

The researchers observed marked declines in visits to large metropolitan economies. High-tech and financial centers including San Francisco and Houston showed reductions in both tourist and business-related travel. The University of Toronto team stated that the cell phone data also measured Canadians living temporarily in the US, suggesting the decrease may reflect some return migration to Canada.

Canadian government figures separately reported that Canadian-resident return trips from the US fell 25% in 2025, while trips to Canada by US residents decreased 7.5%. The researchers noted that broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border appear connected to the changing travel patterns.