Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz Discusses Political Risk, AI at Semafor Event

# Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz Speaks on Political Risk and AI at Semafor Event WASHINGTON (Substrate) -- Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz spoke at the Semafor World Economy event on Tuesday, stating that investors have become complacent about political risk.

He said markets are mispricing geopolitical risk because the world has not undergone a severe geopolitical event for some time. Schwartz added that geopolitical events are hard to price and hard to hedge.

Schwartz said markets responded seven times more violently to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank than to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He stated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was wildly more significant than the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Despite these concerns, Schwartz said he is optimistic about the current global economy.

Emerging AI Threat:

Vibe-Coding Schwartz said an additional threat has emerged along with AI: vibe-coding.

He defined vibe-coding as using AI to develop software instead of writing code line-by-line. Schwartz said he is not personally vibe-coding. He stated that companies are left vulnerable when employees do not write code themselves.

Schwartz said he does not want people randomly coding at the companies Carlyle has invested in. These comments came during his remarks at the Semafor event.

Positive Outlook on Carlyle's Portfolio Schwartz said the economy is doing well based on what he has seen at Carlyle's portfolio companies.

He stated that cash flows at Carlyle's portfolio companies are increasing. This assessment reflects observations from the firm's investments. Carlyle set records for fee-related earnings, assets under management, and global wealth AUM last year, according to the company.

The firm ended the year with AUM of $447 billion. Carlyle had $158 billion in inflows from 2023 to 2025 and is targeting $200 billion of capital inflows from 2026 to 2028.

Schwartz's Tenure at Carlyle Harvey Schwartz joined Carlyle three years ago from his previous job as president and co-chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs.

Since joining Carlyle, Harvey Schwartz has focused on authoring a strategic growth plan. He has overhauled the firm's operating model and leadership structure. Since joining, Schwartz has built up the firm's offerings for high net worth individuals.

He has established an integrated credit and insurance strategy. Schwartz is growing its capital markets business.

“Investors have become complacent about political risk.”

“> -- Harvey Schwartz, at Semafor World Economy > "Markets responded seven times more violently to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank than to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”

“> -- Harvey Schwartz, at Semafor World Economy > "An additional threat has emerged along with AI: vibe-coding.”

“> -- Harvey Schwartz, at Semafor World Economy”