Ceasefire Eases Strait of Hormuz Disruptions as Global Shipping Faces Months-Long Recovery

The Strait of Hormuz has started to reopen following a ceasefire after weeks of disruption from conflict. Traffic through the strait dropped by about 95 percent during the period. This reduction led to surges in prices for crude oil and refined products including jet fuel, diesel, and gas oil.

Carsten Ladekjær, CEO at Glander International Bunkering, which supplies fuel and lubricants to the global shipping industry, stated that the impact varied by region. Countries in Asia dependent on Middle Eastern energy faced significant effects. India sources around 55 percent of its energy imports from the region, China about 50 percent, Japan 93 percent, South Korea 67 percent, and Singapore 70 percent, according to Ladekjær.

Approximately 1,000 ships remain in the Gulf, including hundreds of tankers awaiting passage.

As of the latest reports, more than 800 cargo ships and tankers are inside the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 additional vessels waiting on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal conditions, roughly 150 vessels pass through the strait daily. Clearing the backlog will require sequencing ships, refueling, and repositioning, according to experts.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management, noted logistical, security, and communication challenges. Reopening involves a controlled process managed by Iran for vessel departures. Energy markets responded to the ceasefire with Brent crude falling to around $94 per barrel from $110 earlier in the week, a drop of roughly 15 percent.

Refined products like diesel and jet fuel declined further, as markets price in expectations. Prices remain above pre-conflict levels of $60 to $70 per barrel.

infrastructure across the region, including refineries, gas plants, and ports, sustained damage from missile and drone strikes.