Center for Politics Shifts Ratings for 17 House Districts Ahead of 2026 Midterms
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics updated its House race ratings Wednesday after changes from redistricting, primary results and congressional scandals. Nine shifts occurred in Florida following approval of a new congressional map. Overall, 213 districts rate as Safe, Likely or Leans Democratic, 207 as Safe, Likely or Leans Republican and 15 as Toss-ups.
winnipegfreepress.comThe University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted ratings for 17 House races on Wednesday in response to redistricting, primary election outcomes and congressional scandals. Nine of the changes took place in Florida after the state enacted a new congressional map earlier this week.
On balance the adjustments improve Republican positioning in the state’s delegation according to the Center for Politics. Florida’s 14th Congressional District moved from Safe Democratic to Leans Republican. The 9th District shifted from Likely Democratic to Likely Republican while the new 22nd and 25th districts changed from Safe Democratic to Leans Republican and Toss-up respectively.
Four districts held by Republicans moved from safe to likely Republican ratings. Last week the Center for Politics adjusted four Virginia districts from toss-up or safe or likely Republican to leans or likely Democratic following that state’s redistricting plan approved by voters.
Primary results in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana last week prompted several rating changes that largely benefited Democrats. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up even after being redrawn in October 2025 to become more favorable to Republicans.
A vacant Texas district previously rated safe Republican was moved to likely Republican. Additional changes included one Indiana district moving from leans to likely Democratic, one Michigan district shifting from likely to leans Republican, another Michigan district moving from leans to likely Democratic and one Minnesota district changing from safe to likely Republican.
“Our overall House ratings show 213 districts rated as Safe, Likely or Leans Democratic, 207 rated Safe, Likely or Leans Republican, and 15 rated as Toss-ups,” the Center for Politics noted. The adjustments reflect responses to map changes in multiple states as well as individual candidate circumstances.
Further updates are expected as additional primaries occur and campaign developments unfold ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
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