China Believes Cross-Strait Trends Favor It at Least Until 2028

Beijing currently believes that cross-strait dynamics are trending in its favor and that this assessment is likely to hold at least until 2028. S. intervention. The article by Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser states that Beijing is confident it can compel Taiwan into capitulation without a full-scale invasion while preventing any move toward formal independence.

China has not ruled out the use of force but sees little risk of needing military action in the near term because it believes its long-term strategy is succeeding. Polls cited in the article show decreasing support for independence among Taiwan’s youth.

In April, Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing and reaffirmed her party’s opposition to independence and support for the 1992 Consensus.

In 2028 The article reports that Beijing’s belief that time is on its side will face a major test in 2028 with presidential elections in both Taiwan and the United States. If Taiwan reelects its current president and Beijing judges that he is creating momentum toward formalizing independence, China could apply sharper pressure such as sending ships and aircraft into Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace or imposing a quarantine.

For now, Chinese leaders see patience as a winning strategy, the authors write.

The article states that Beijing’s strategy is rooted in the conviction that the balance of power is tilting in its favor against Washington. Over the past year, China has become more assured of its rise and of the United States’ relative decline. It believes its model of governance delivers better outcomes than Western democracy, which it views as increasingly dysfunctional. S.

economic and technological pressure and has tools to shape Washington’s decisions on trade, technology and Taiwan. The article notes that China handled the Trump administration’s trade war in 2025 by retaliating with reciprocal duties and restrictions on rare-earth exports, concluding that Washington quickly capitulated. S.

models at a fraction of the cost, increased confidence that China could close the technology gap.

Despite its growing confidence, Beijing remains aware of economic and political challenges. Its most recent five-year plan highlights risks including local government debt, persistent deflation, a property market crisis and slowing productivity growth. S.

levers that could block China’s rise. The article states that China is convinced its eventual strength will dissuade the United States and Taiwan from strong resistance and will attract Taiwan’s people to the benefits of unification. Even if force becomes necessary, Beijing is sensitive to the high costs of acting before it has fully realized its developmental potential.

A major conflict with the United States could result in economic losses on the order of trillions of dollars, domestic instability and international isolation. As long as Beijing believes it can succeed over the long term, the near-term risks of military action are not worth taking.