China Pursues Long-Term Strategy on Taiwan Unification

Chinese leaders are weighing the benefits and costs of different pathways to resolving Taiwan’s status and have concluded that a long-term strategy offers the best prospects for unification at the lowest cost, according to an article in Foreign Affairs.

Beijing believes unification will become easier over time as China develops greater military and economic capabilities to deter U.S. intervention. Chinese officials are confident they can compel Taiwan into capitulation without a full-scale invasion while preventing any move toward formal independence.

The article by Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser states that Beijing has not ruled out the use of force but sees little risk of military action in the near term. Polls cited in the article show decreasing support for independence among Taiwan’s youth.

In April, Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. Over the past year, Beijing has grown more confident in its governance model and its ability to withstand U.S. economic and technological pressure.

The article reports that Chinese leaders believe they have developed tools to influence Washington’s decisions on trade, technology and Taiwan. This confidence was reinforced by China’s response to the Trump administration’s trade war in 2025. Beijing imposed reciprocal tariffs and restrictions on rare-earth element exports, moves it assessed led Washington to back down from its threats.

In artificial intelligence, the emergence of the DeepSeek large language model, which rivals U.S. models at a fraction of the cost, increased optimism that China can close technological gaps despite sanctions.

The most recent five-year plan acknowledges risks in the Chinese economy, including local government debt, deflation, a property market crisis and slowing productivity growth. It also notes threats of hegemonism, an indirect reference to U.S. levers that could impede China’s rise.

These assessments shape Beijing’s cautious approach to Taiwan. Chinese leaders remain sensitive to the potential costs of using force before the country has fully realized its development goals. A major conflict with the United States could result in trillions of dollars in economic damage, domestic instability and international isolation.

Xi Jinping’s purges, which removed about half of his top military commanders, have likely slowed military modernization and degraded the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to conduct complex operations. Trump has claimed that Xi promised not to invade while Trump is president.

Outlook for 2028 Beijing’s belief that time is on its side will face a test in the 2028 presidential elections in both Taiwan and the United States. If Taiwan reelects its current president and Beijing concludes he is advancing formal independence, China could apply sharper pressure, including increased military activity near the island or a quarantine.

The authors state that even then a military takeover would remain unlikely. For now, Chinese leaders view patience as the most effective strategy. As Liu Guoshen, a professor at Xiamen University, argued at a forum in February, the long game continues to guide Beijing’s approach.

" — Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S.