China's June Exports Rose 27 Percent and Imports 36 Percent Year-on-Year

China's exports rose 27 percent in June from a year earlier, the customs agency said Tuesday, outpacing the 19.4 percent increase recorded in May. Imports climbed 36 percent year-on-year compared with 27.4 percent the previous month. The trade surplus expanded to $125.6 billion from $105.4 billion in May.

The agency attributed the export acceleration to strong foreign demand for semiconductors and electronics tied to the artificial intelligence boom. Exports to Southeast Asia surged nearly 35 percent, while shipments to the European Union rose more than 18 percent and those to Latin America increased more than 28 percent. Exports to the United States climbed almost 14 percent.

For the first half of the year, exports grew 17.6 percent and imports rose 26.6 percent from the same period a year earlier. Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, wrote that trade values took another big leg up in June, predominantly reflecting the recent surge in semiconductor prices on the back of the AI boom, while foreign demand for Chinese goods remains robust.

Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China), said export growth is likely to continue but is becoming increasingly fragile, with robust shipments in autos and AI-related items dependent on global demand and regulatory barriers.

Chinese leaders have set an annual growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent for this year. The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's 2026 expansion by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent and projects 4.1 percent growth in 2027.