Chinese Crude Oil Imports Projected at 6.4 Million Barrels per Day in June 2026

com. That pace would mark the weakest monthly average since October 2016 and an 8 percent decline from May volumes. May imports averaged 7.82 million barrels per day, down 29 percent from the same month a year earlier, 17 percent from April, and 38 percent from February, before the war began.

The daily gap from February levels now stands at a negative 4 million barrels. Analysts cited by OilPrice.com attribute part of the drop to permanent demand destruction. Rystad Energy estimates losses of 200,000 to 600,000 barrels per day from pre-war levels, while Energy Aspects sees a permanent reduction of 300,000 barrels per day.

FGE NexantECA forecasts a drop of as much as 3.3 million barrels per day for the second quarter. China drew on its one-billion-barrel strategic stockpile to cushion the supply shock caused by the war. Some analysts expect purchases to rise again as prices ease and inventories are rebuilt, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover.