science
Climate Prediction Center Forecasts Likely El Niño Emergence in May-July 2026
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has issued an update indicating a 61 percent chance of El Niño developing in May-July 2026 and persisting through the end of the year. El Niño involves warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters that can alter weather patterns across the United States. The forecast includes potential effects on temperature, precipitation, and hurricane activity.
Apr 10, 10:00 AM·1m read1 source
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The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has provided updates on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as reported by Newsweek. ENSO-neutral conditions, where neither El Niño nor La Niña is active, may continue in the near term.
El Niño forms when trade winds along the equator weaken, allowing warm surface waters to shift eastward toward the western coast of the Americas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This pattern represents the warm phase of ENSO.
During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream shifts south of its typical position, leading to drier and warmer conditions in the northern United States and Canada, and wetter conditions in the southern United States.
El Niño can also affect hurricane seasons. It is associated with reduced tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean basin and increased activity in the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons. Newsweek reported that stronger ENSO events can result in more extreme weather, such as intensified droughts in some areas and flooding in others.
The CPC has noted factors like subsurface temperature anomalies and wind patterns that could influence ENSO development. Possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a strong El Niño during upcoming seasons.
However, factors such as marine heat waves, changes in sea ice, and broader climate trends can modify typical El Niño patterns.
This forecast provides context for potential weather variations affecting agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness across the United States. Stakeholders in northern and southern regions may need to prepare for differing precipitation levels.
The development will be monitored for its influence on hurricane seasons in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
