finance
Cocoa Futures Rise Toward $6,000 a Ton on West Africa Weather Concerns
Cocoa futures traded in New York have doubled since early March and approached levels last seen in late 2025. Weather data from Ivory Coast and Ghana show cooler temperatures and above-average rainfall that raise disease risks for the 2026/27 crop.
Jul 9, 5:45 AM·1m read1 source
ZeroHedgeAudio version
Tap play to generate a narrated version.
Developing·Limited corroboration so far. This page will refresh as more sources emerge.
Cocoa futures traded in New York have doubled since early March and moved back toward $6,000 a ton, levels last recorded in late 2025. A Jefferies note issued Tuesday cited cooler temperatures and heavier rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa-producing countries.
Temperatures have run about 2 degrees Fahrenheit below five-year averages since March, while June rainfall exceeded long-term norms by 46 percent in Ivory Coast and 52 percent in Ghana.
Excess moisture raises the risk of black pod and brown rot.
Early field surveys already show reduced cherelle formation and weaker pod development for the 2026/27 season. Industry estimates now place the Ivory Coast harvest at 1.7 million to 1.8 million metric tons, an 18 percent decline from the 2.2 million tons recorded in 2025/26.
The global stock-to-grinding ratio remains below its historical average, though it has improved from the 2023/24 season. Traders are also watching for a possible El Niño event later in 2026 that could bring hot, dry winds to West Africa and further pressure output.
