Coffee Futures Rose 18.5% Monday Then Fell More Than 7% Tuesday

Coffee futures rose as much as 18.5 percent on Monday to $3.57 per pound, marking the commodity’s largest intraday gain since 2000 and extending a 48 percent rally that began June 10, Forbes reported. The contracts then fell more than 7 percent in early Tuesday trading. StoneX described the Monday session as historic and said it pushed coffee futures into meme-stock territory.

The firm stated that aggressive buying by institutional investors and computer-driven trading funds overwhelmed heavy selling from coffee-producing countries. Weather concerns grew as traders anticipated possible harvest disruption from the El Niño pattern, and supplies of premium Arabica coffee remained tight, StoneX added. El Niño developed in the Pacific earlier this month.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that the pattern typically has a significant impact on Northern Hemisphere countries during the winter, will likely peak between November and January, and will bring hotter-than-normal temperatures and more irregular rainfall.

Cocoa futures surged 13 percent on Monday to their highest level since January, driven largely by persistent rains across West Africa, according to Ole Hansen of Saxo. The average cost for a pound of coffee in the United States reached an all-time high of just over $9.72 in April before easing to $9.51 in May, Federal Reserve data showed.

Forbes estimates indicated the average cost for a tub of coffee had risen 115 percent between June 2020 and April 2026.