Colombia Presidential Election Heads to Likely Runoff Between Cepeda and De La Espriella

Colombia holds its presidential election Sunday in a contest that has narrowed to two leading candidates. Left-wing senator Ivan Cepeda and hard-right outsider Abelardo De La Espriella are the front-runners according to multiple recent polls.

Other firms including Guarumo and CNC produced similar results. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi currently give De La Espriella roughly 59 percent odds of ultimately winning the presidency, compared with about 40 percent for Cepeda.

Background on the Candidates Cepeda, 56, is a member of President Gustavo Petro's Historic Pact coalition and has campaigned on continuing the administration's social programs and peace negotiations. De La Espriella, 54, is a corporate lawyer with no prior elected office who has focused his campaign on security and law-and-order measures.

The outcome could affect Colombia's security cooperation and counternarcotics policy with the United States. A De La Espriella victory would likely produce closer ties with the Trump administration, while a Cepeda victory would likely continue recent tensions.

Benjamin Gedan of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies told Newsweek that U.S. diplomats had enjoyed close cooperation on security issues before recent years. Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue said Cepeda would largely represent policy continuity with the current administration.

Former U.S. Ambassador Kevin Whitaker told Newsweek that the government's peace strategy has coincided with a surge in coca and cocaine production.