Colorado State University Cuts 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast to Nine Storms

Colorado State University meteorologists on July 8 issued an updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast that calls for nine named storms. Usa Today reported the revision is four storms fewer than the April outlook and five below the long-term average of 14.

The reduction stems from rising confidence in a strong El Niño, which is expected to produce high vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic.

The forecast assigns a 17 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, compared with the historical average of 43 percent. The Gulf Coast faces a 10 percent chance and the East Coast an 8 percent chance.

Florida retains the highest state-level risk, with a 49 percent probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles. North Carolina's corresponding probability is 32 percent. Both figures are lower than the April estimates of 74 percent and 54 percent.

Klotzbach noted that the signal for one of the strongest El Niños on record has grown stronger. The last time the university issued a forecast below 10 named storms was for the 2015 season.