Colorado State University Forecasts Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2026

Colorado State University researchers released a forecast on Thursday for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13 named tropical storms. Of these, six are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with two intensifying into major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger. This projection falls below the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The forecast estimates a 32% probability of a hurricane striking the US coastline, compared to the historical average of 43%. The 2025 season, which produced 13 named storms, featured periods of calm and intense activity, including three major hurricanes: Melissa, Erin, and Humberto. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

the Forecast The primary factor in the below-average prediction is an anticipated El Niño pattern emerging this summer.

El Niño involves warmer-than-usual ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific west of South America, which increases wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean, disrupting tropical storm development. Hurricanes require warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear to form and intensify. Early forecasts indicate a moderate to strong El Niño, potentially the strongest since 2016.

Researchers note that major hurricanes have occurred during such events, including Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965, and Idalia in 2023.

surface temperatures in the Atlantic show mixed conditions.

Waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while those in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal as of late April. The Main Development Region, spanning from the west coast of northern Africa to the Caribbean, currently has temperatures near average. This region serves as a primary area for hurricane formation.

The combination of these temperatures and El Niño creates competing influences on storm activity. Uncertainty remains high due to the early timing of the forecast in April, with potential changes in atmospheric and climate patterns before the season's peak in mid-September.