Colorado State University lowers 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast

Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team released an updated forecast on July 8 that lowered its April outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The team now expects nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. Those figures are below the long-term averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Forecast drivers An El Niño pattern that developed in late spring is the main factor behind the reduced numbers, the researchers said. The Climate Prediction Center has stated there is a 63 percent chance the event will rank among the strongest on record by the end of the season.

Landfall probabilities The forecast assigns a 32 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline and a 35 percent chance for the Caribbean. Officials in Florida and along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard continue to monitor conditions that could alter those odds.

"We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season," said a co-author of the forecast. " The season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks between August and October. The team will issue further updates as conditions evolve.