Colorado State University Updates 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast to Nine Named Storms

Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team released an updated 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on July 8, 2026, projecting nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. The outlook revised downward the team's April forecast of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Hurricane activity is expected to fall below 75 percent of the long-term seasonal average.

The Atlantic season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks between August and October. Phil Klotzbach, the lead author, noted at an April news conference that curveballs could still emerge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a similar below-average outlook.

Delián Colón-Burgos, a co-author, said coastal residents should prepare the same way every season and take the risks seriously regardless of the numbers. Michael Bell, another co-author, stated that it takes only one storm near a location to make the season active for that area. The forecast assigns a 32 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall along the U.S.

Coastline and a 35 percent chance in the Caribbean. El Niño arrived in late spring 2026 and the Climate Prediction Center said it may intensify and persist through at least the end of the year. Forecasters place a 63 percent chance that the event will rank among the strongest since 1950 by the close of the 2026 season.

Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic remain one source of uncertainty. The 2025 season produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, none of which made direct landfall in the United States. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.