CSIS Brief Reports Russia’s Economy Slowed in 2025 as Territorial Losses Began

A research brief published Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies states that Russia’s economy is in distress and that wartime spending may be increasingly untenable. Fortune reported that the brief links these strains to Russian forces advancing as slowly as 50 to 90 meters a day in 2026 and to territorial holdings that shrank for the first time since August 2024.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, as many as 450,000 Russians have died and 1.4 million have been injured, the brief said, a pace that now likely exceeds monthly recruitment.

Russia lost control of 116 square kilometers in April alone, according to data cited from the Institute for the Study of War, and its rate of advancement has been shrinking since November 2025. The brief noted that everyday Russians are suffering from a sputtering economy.

Russia’s GDP growth fell to around 0.6 percent in 2025 after expanding more than 4 percent in both 2023 and 2024, Fortune reported, citing Bruegel.

The share of oil and gas receipts in federal budget revenue dropped to 23 percent in 2025, the lowest in two decades, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Between 2022 and 2024, public cash injections exceeded 10 percent of GDP. Russia raised its value added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent to offset revenue shortfalls.

This week the country launched an 11-hour barrage of missiles and drones over Kiev that killed at least 20 people. The CSIS brief states the moment is ripe for a pressure campaign that pushes the Russian economy toward exhaustion. It adds that the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield economic or military pressure despite Russia’s battlefield challenges and economic vulnerabilities.