finance
Dallas Fed Survey: Permian Basin Executives Expect Modest U.S. Oil Production Increases in 2026 Despite Iran War
A Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas executives in the Permian Basin indicates limited increases in U.S. oil production this year and in 2027 due to the Iran war. Predictions show most expect changes under 500,000 barrels per day, amid ongoing uncertainty from price volatility and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Analysts warn of impending inventory shortages in OECD countries.
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U.S. Permian Basin predict only modest increases in domestic oil production this year in response to the Iran war, according to a Dallas Fed survey. U.S. oil output for the current year, while 43% anticipated an uptick of 1 to 250,000 barrels per day.
Seventeen percent expected a rise of 250,000 to 500,000 barrels per day, and just 1% predicted more than 1 million barrels per day additional output. The survey, conducted by the Dallas Fed and covering executives in the prolific Permian Basin, showed a slightly more optimistic view for 2027.
U.S. Oil production that year, 26% expected an increase of 1 to 250,000 barrels per day, and 32% predicted a boost of 250,000 to 500,000 barrels per day.
West Texas Intermediate futures climbed from $57 a barrel at the start of the year to $111 at the height of the Iran war, settling just below $100 during the past week. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the war, has been largely closed off for more than 40 days.
A separate Dallas Fed survey last month found half of exploration and production executives reporting no change in the number of wells their firms expect to drill in 2026.
Twenty-six percent noted only a slight increase in planned drilling for the year. com reported that pre-war oil shipments via tankers from the Persian Gulf have only now reached their destinations, exacerbating supply disruptions. Anonymous respondents in the latest Dallas Fed report highlighted uncertainty dampening production plans.
