Deaths projected to exceed births annually in England and Wales from 2026

Official projections indicate deaths will exceed births in England and Wales each year starting in 2026. The Office for National Statistics revised its estimates for UK population growth earlier this year after recording a decline in birth rates and a drop in net migration.

The revised figures project 450,000 more deaths than births over the next decade. Population growth is now expected to total about 1.7 million by 2034, driven entirely by immigration, before declining in the mid-2050s.

Regional and historical patterns Some regions recorded increases in births last year, including London and the West Midlands. The North East and South West saw overall declines. Deaths exceeded births in 2020 during the Covid pandemic and again in 2023.

Forty percent of babies born last year had at least one parent born outside Britain. The fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.39 children per woman, below the 2.1 level required to maintain population size without immigration.

Policy implications cited by analysts A think tank analysis designated July 1 as the point when annual deaths are projected to surpass births. Its research director stated that maintaining the current ratio of workers to pensioners would require raising the state pension age to 75.

The same analysis warned that lower birth rates could increase government spending and noted that population decline without immigration would begin earlier than previously estimated.