Declining High School Graduates Projected to Reduce US College Enrollment Through 2041

The number of teenagers graduating from American high schools reached its peak last year, in 2025. Starting this spring, in 2026, the number is projected to decline and continue falling steadily through at least 2041. This decline follows a gradual downward trend rather than a sudden drop.

The United States has about 4,000 colleges. A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that approximately 60 colleges close each year on average. The study indicated that this number could double in a given year if enrollment decreases significantly.

Higher education in the US consists of two main markets. One market involves high-achieving students, often from affluent backgrounds, who apply to national universities. The other market serves mostly middle- and lower-income students who attend institutions closer to home.

the past half century, enrollment in higher education has increased among teenagers.

This growth has made higher education more national in scope, particularly for top students. Factors such as interstate highways, discount airlines, and technology have reduced the perceived distance to campuses. In the 1980s, parents typically communicated with college students via pay phones every few weeks.

Today, parents can text or video call their children multiple times a day. These developments have facilitated attendance at distant schools.

This pattern divides the market into national brands attracting high-performing students from across the country and regional institutions serving local populations.

to the approximately 60 campuses that accept fewer than 20 percent of applicants have increased from nearly 800,000 two decades ago to more than 2.

35 million today. The size of freshman classes at these schools has remained largely unchanged since the 1970s. Students now apply to more schools, contributing to higher competition. Regional colleges have responded to losing local students to national universities by expanding access for underrepresented groups.

They have added programs and amenities to attract students who might otherwise not attend college. These institutions have also partnered with the private sector for online and international outreach. For many years, regional colleges could rely on sufficient numbers of local teenagers to fill freshman classes.

The ongoing decline in high school graduates may limit these options. Students in the second market, who prefer or need local institutions, could face reduced access to higher education near their homes. National universities are likely to continue attracting top students despite the overall decline.

However, the reduction in graduates may lead to more closures among regional colleges. This could affect the availability of higher education for middle- and lower-income students in their communities.