Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot by Average of Five Points
The average lead for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test reached five points in May. The measure has historically indicated a wave election when the opposition party exceeds that threshold.
revolver.newsThe generic congressional ballot test asks respondents which party's candidate they plan to support for their House district. The average lead on this test has historically indicated whether a wave election is likely. Three of the last five midterm elections produced wave years in which the party out of the White House flipped more than 25 House seats.
In each of those years the opposition party held an average lead of more than five points on the generic ballot test. The current average lead for Democrats exceeds five points. The same threshold was not reached in the non-wave years of 2014 and 2022.
The 2010 election produced Republican gains of more than 25 seats. Polling averages on the generic ballot test have not always predicted the exact number of seats that change hands.
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