Democrats Target State Legislatures to Prepare for 2028 Redistricting

After a series of court rulings gave Republicans an advantage in redistricting, Democrats have limited options to respond before this year's midterms. The party is instead directing resources toward state legislative races this fall to prepare for drawing new congressional maps ahead of the 2028 elections.

A U.S. Supreme Court decision last month opened the door for several GOP-controlled states with majority-minority districts held by Democrats to redraw their maps. This adds to maps enacted over the past year in states where Republicans acted at President Donald Trump's urging.

Democrats hold full control of fewer state governments than Republicans. In several states where they do hold power, independent commissions handle map drawing. As a result, the party has few avenues to pursue new redistricting before November, when control of the narrowly divided House will be decided.

Democratic organizations is focusing on at least a dozen states where they hope to flip or strengthen majorities in legislative chambers. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, House Majority PAC and The States Project are coordinating the effort.

The DLCC announced in December that it would spend $50 million to target up to 650 legislative seats across 42 chambers in about two dozen states. The group is seeking to flip both chambers in Wisconsin and Arizona. If Democrats retain the governorships in those three states, they would hold a trifecta of power.

The DLCC is also investing in flipping the Michigan state House and building supermajorities in both chambers of the Washington state legislature. "The Callais decision is a seismic shift in the electoral landscape that exposes yet again the importance of Democrats building a strong foundation of power in the states," DLCC President Heather Williams said, referring to the Supreme Court decision.

House Majority PAC is also investing in legislative races in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, Democrats would need to flip both legislative chambers and the governorship. In Pennsylvania, they must defend a narrow state House majority and gain seats in the state Senate.

Outlook for 2028 Democratic groups project that gains this November could position them to pursue new maps affecting as many as nine congressional seats for the 2028 cycle. The only Democratic map-drawing success for the 2026 cycle occurred in California, where voters approved new lines in a special election last year that could yield up to five additional seats.

By comparison, Republicans are positioned to gain as many as 14 seats through six new maps enacted over the past year. The most recent was in Tennessee. The Supreme Court this week also cleared Alabama to implement a map that removes a Democratic-held district.

A proposal in Louisiana would have a similar effect. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, said her group had prepared for nearly a year for the Supreme Court ruling and its effects. She noted that the Virginia court decision was among events that altered expectations.

The group is expanding its efforts in states where legislative gains could build governing power for 2028. Democrats are also examining states where they already hold full control. In Colorado, they are optimistic about placing a measure on the ballot this fall that would create a Democratic-friendly map for 2028 and 2030, bypassing the independent commission.

Democratic governors in Illinois and New York have indicated they may pursue new maps after the midterms.

Independent redistricting commissions in states such as Arizona and Michigan would still pose obstacles even if Democrats secure full control. Not all Democratic-led states are expected to pursue aggressive redraws. A redistricting effort this cycle faced resistance in the Maryland state Senate.

Republicans are expected to continue their own redistricting efforts. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp called for a special legislative session in June to consider a new congressional map for 2028. In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves has said the Legislature is expected to redraw lines between now and 2027.

"Democrats are going to do whatever we can in order to push back in 2026, but the bulk of redistricting pushback that you will see from Democrats will now happen in 2028," CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, said.