Democrats Target State Legislatures to Prepare for 2028 Redistricting

House Majority PAC is also investing in legislative races in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, Democrats would need to flip both legislative chambers and the governorship. In Pennsylvania, they must defend a narrow state House majority and gain seats in the state Senate.

Outlook for 2028 Democratic groups project that gains this November could position them to pursue new maps affecting as many as nine congressional seats for the 2028 cycle. The only Democratic map-drawing success for the 2026 cycle occurred in California, where voters approved new lines in a special election last year that could yield up to five additional seats.

By comparison, Republicans are positioned to gain as many as 14 seats through six new maps enacted over the past year. The most recent was in Tennessee. The Supreme Court this week also cleared Alabama to implement a map that removes a Democratic-held district.

A proposal in Louisiana would have a similar effect. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, said her group had prepared for nearly a year for the Supreme Court ruling and its effects. She noted that the Virginia court decision was among events that altered expectations.

The group is expanding its efforts in states where legislative gains could build governing power for 2028. Democrats are also examining states where they already hold full control. In Colorado, they are optimistic about placing a measure on the ballot this fall that would create a Democratic-friendly map for 2028 and 2030, bypassing the independent commission.

Democratic governors in Illinois and New York have indicated they may pursue new maps after the midterms.

Independent redistricting commissions in states such as Arizona and Michigan would still pose obstacles even if Democrats secure full control. Not all Democratic-led states are expected to pursue aggressive redraws. A redistricting effort this cycle faced resistance in the Maryland state Senate.

Republicans are expected to continue their own redistricting efforts. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp called for a special legislative session in June to consider a new congressional map for 2028. In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves has said the Legislature is expected to redraw lines between now and 2027.

"Democrats are going to do whatever we can in order to push back in 2026, but the bulk of redistricting pushback that you will see from Democrats will now happen in 2028," CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, said.