Drought Affects 60% of Continental U.S. as Relief Expected from Monsoon and Developing El Niño

U.S. Drought Monitor. The dry, warm period began in early autumn 2025 and has continued into late May 2026.

Winter wheat production has been hit hardest across the Great Plains from Montana to Texas. Up to 44 percent of this year's winter wheat crop is rated very poor to poor, the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Tuesday. Nebraska leads with 82 percent of its winter wheat rated very poor to poor; Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas also show high rates of poor conditions.

U.S. winter wheat this year, according to the USDA's Wheat Outlook. That rate has occurred only once since the Dust Bowl era in 1933, during the record drought of 2022.

Good moisture at planting in fall 2025 gave way to extremely dry conditions from early March through mid-May 2026. Some growers in southwest Kansas skipped planting corn and sorghum after more than 200 days without more than half an inch of rain in places.

Rangeland and pasture conditions across the middle of the country are described as rough heading into the key hay production season, affecting the cattle industry.

Recent rain in the Midwest has not been enough to offset eight months of dryness. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest reservoirs, are at low levels after a winter with little snowpack. Lake Mead could reach a record-low elevation of 1,036 feet in 2026, according to the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month study.

Lake Powell is projected to fall below its previous record low of around 3,520 feet set in 2023. The Colorado River basin as a whole holds 49 percent of its historic average storage. About 75 percent of the nation's lettuce and leafy greens are grown in California, where reduced surface water leads farmers to increase groundwater pumping.

Overuse of groundwater can lower water quality, drop the water table and cause land subsidence, experts said. Small, family-run farms are expected to face the greatest impact, including decisions to remove crops from production. Monsoon season is forecast to begin in early July and continue through September.

El Niño conditions developing in October are expected to bring additional relief from fall 2026 through spring 2027.