East Asian Nations Divided in Preferences Between US and China, Survey Indicates

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute released its annual report earlier this month, surveying approximately 2,000 opinion leaders and elites in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report found that 52% preferred China over the U.S. if forced to choose, with preferences varying by country.

Countries favoring China included Indonesia at 80.1%, Malaysia at 68%, Singapore at 66.3%, Timor-Leste at 58.2%, Thailand at 55%, and Brunei at 53.5%. Those favoring the U.S. included the Philippines at 76.8%, Myanmar at 61.4%, Cambodia at 61%, and Vietnam at 59.2%.

Laos showed an even split.

A director at the Stimson Center stated that geography and history explain these groupings. She noted that mainland Southeast Asian countries, despite past communist ties, tend to favor the U.S., while maritime countries lean toward China due to economic engagements such as trade and infrastructure development.

The director added that in mainland Southeast Asia, China's political dominance has led to pushback, with survey respondents identifying domestic interference as a key concern regarding China.

A research paper from Waseda University, published on Tuesday, indicated that Wolf Warrior Diplomacy has reinforced adherence to democratic systems and damaged China's reputation in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

“Our results show that ‘Wolf Warrior’ messaging may fail to win public support and can even damage the sender’s reputation. In addition, it highlights that democratic values in East Asia remain resilient, even when exposed to forceful anti-democratic rhetoric." — Professor Tetsuro Kobayashi U.S. support for Israel in the Gaza conflict has affected its popularity in majority-Muslim countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, according to the director. Thailand's shift toward preferring China in the 2026 survey, compared to 2025, relates to its historical strategy of balancing powers to maintain independence, as it was never colonized.”

Developments Under Current U.S.

and China has seen some de-escalation, though not completely, the director said. She noted that regional countries have become more committed to their existing alignments. China attempted to draw U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan closer during the initial months of Trump's term but did not succeed, according to the director.

She attributed this to China's assumption that U.S. support for allies might weaken, prompting those countries to rebalance toward China without additional incentives from Beijing.