El Niño Thresholds Reached in California Waters With 97% Chance of Strong Conditions Through December

Ocean temperatures reached El Niño thresholds in California waters by mid-June 2026. Oceanic conditions changed rapidly in the months preceding that date, according to Los Angeles Times reporting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center stated there is a 97% chance that El Niño will be either “strong” or “very strong” over the three-month period ending December 2026.

El Niño typically emerges every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, according to NOAA. It is characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño of winter 2023-24 produced well above average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation in coastal Northern California, the state Department of Conservation said.

During three of the four very strong El Niños in the global record, downtown Los Angeles received more rain than average. In the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events, downtown Los Angeles received more than double its usual yearly rainfall. Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, stated that during El Niño, jet-stream energy typically brings more stormy weather than usual to the southern United States, including Southern California, during the winter.

The very strong El Niño of 2015-16 brought record coastal erosion along many California beaches, the state Coastal Commission said. A marine heat wave unrelated to El Niño is currently in effect off Southern California. Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific’s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates, stated that an increase in tropical or warm subtropical species, which may include increased shark sightings off the Southern California coast, may be expected in the near future.