Estimate Puts Explicit Economic Damage to Iran at $144 Billion

The model deliberately omitted several difficult-to-quantify factors, including the cost of rebuilding regional proxy networks, human capital losses, wartime inflation, reconstruction financing and long-term foreign direct investment deterrence. A researcher involved in the report told the Washington Examiner that these omitted elements likely add costs valued in the hundreds of billions.

" the researcher said.

The blockade has restricted Iran's ability to export oil, a central part of its economy. With storage capacity limits approaching, the country may soon be forced to reduce production, which could cause permanent reservoir damage from water seepage. This reduction could begin as soon as this month, according to the report.

A separate researcher at the Hudson Institute highlighted the Trump administration's Operation Economic Fury, which closed sanctions loopholes involving the United Arab Emirates, China and cryptocurrency wallets previously used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

A senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Washington Examiner that the war has affected every sector of Iran's economy but cautioned against relying on standard economic metrics. He noted the economy's distortions, such as heavily subsidized gasoline alongside a severely devalued currency, and the government's control over information.

"The economy is so distorted in Iran, to start with, that the sort of normal economic numbers don't give you as accurate an insight as it sounds like it does," the fellow said. He and other researchers expressed hesitation about forecasting how long Iran can sustain current pressures, describing a reported CIA estimate of three to four months as plausible but emphasizing that political upheaval is difficult to predict arithmetically.

An internet blackout lasting more than 70 days has further disrupted trade and commerce, even as it supports domestic security measures.