Estimate Puts Explicit Economic Damage to Iran at $144 Billion

An estimate placed the total explicit economic damage to Iran from the war and associated blockade at $144 billion, though the report said the true figure is believed to be higher. A pro-Israel think tank released the assessment on Friday, presenting one of the first explicit quantifications of damage to Iran's economy.

The analysis produced a range of $50 billion to $300 billion, settling on $144 billion as the most likely middle figure. It relied on hydrocarbon revenue losses and physical replacement costs for damaged assets, drawing from satellite imagery, U.S. Central Command battle damage reports, International Atomic Energy Agency assessments, news reporting and Iranian statements.

Half of the quantified direct damage stemmed from military and strategic assets including nuclear facilities, missile and drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels and air defense systems. The remainder came from lost revenue in the oil and gas sector and the prevention of oil exports.

Two-thirds of the economic damage was attributed to the war's air campaign and one-third to the blockade, according to the report. Replacement costs for Iran are elevated because of supply chain difficulties and sanctions; certain equipment such as F-14 Tomcats cannot be replaced domestically.

"Most military hardware has a use-life measured in decades, and rebuilding Iran's nuclear program, missile production infrastructure, and naval fleet would require, not only substantial financial resources, but time, technical expertise, and supply chains that U.S. sanctions have already severely constrained," the report said.

The model deliberately omitted several difficult-to-quantify factors, including the cost of rebuilding regional proxy networks, human capital losses, wartime inflation, reconstruction financing and long-term foreign direct investment deterrence. A researcher involved in the report told the Washington Examiner that these omitted elements likely add costs valued in the hundreds of billions.

" the researcher said.

The blockade has restricted Iran's ability to export oil, a central part of its economy. With storage capacity limits approaching, the country may soon be forced to reduce production, which could cause permanent reservoir damage from water seepage. This reduction could begin as soon as this month, according to the report.

A separate researcher at the Hudson Institute highlighted the Trump administration's Operation Economic Fury, which closed sanctions loopholes involving the United Arab Emirates, China and cryptocurrency wallets previously used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

A senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Washington Examiner that the war has affected every sector of Iran's economy but cautioned against relying on standard economic metrics. He noted the economy's distortions, such as heavily subsidized gasoline alongside a severely devalued currency, and the government's control over information.

"The economy is so distorted in Iran, to start with, that the sort of normal economic numbers don't give you as accurate an insight as it sounds like it does," the fellow said. He and other researchers expressed hesitation about forecasting how long Iran can sustain current pressures, describing a reported CIA estimate of three to four months as plausible but emphasizing that political upheaval is difficult to predict arithmetically.

An internet blackout lasting more than 70 days has further disrupted trade and commerce, even as it supports domestic security measures.