EU Sanctions on Russia May Advance Following Political and Policy Changes

Recent political shifts in Hungary and changes in U.S. sanctions policy have increased prospects for the European Union to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions have been delayed due to vetoes and energy disputes but could move forward soon.

U.S. decision to phase out waivers for Russian oil added complexity to the situation.

Following the recent electoral defeat in Hungary, officials in Brussels see an opportunity to resolve the outstanding vetoes and approve the sanctions package, which also includes a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. Although the current leadership is expected to remain in office until May, expectations are focused on the incoming leadership to adopt a more cooperative stance.

The position of Slovakia remains uncertain.

A leader in Slovakia, who has ideological ties with the Hungarian leader, has previously expressed opposition linked to the disruption of oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline rather than the sanctions’ content. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported that repairs to the pipeline, damaged by Russian drones in late January, are expected to restore partial functionality by the end of the month.

This repair could influence Slovakia’s stance on the sanctions.

announced it would not renew sanctions relief measures for Russian and Iranian oil that had been introduced to mitigate disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 30-day permit allowing countries to purchase Russian oil already at sea expired over the weekend.

European officials viewed the U.S. move as unilateral and counterproductive to maintaining pressure on Russia. The International Energy Agency reported that the price of Russian Urals crude has been hovering over $110 per barrel, leading to Russia's revenue from crude and refined products rising sharply to $19 billion in March compared to $9.7 billion in February.