Expert Criticizes Lebanese Hezbollah Disarmament Legislation as Ineffective

L’Orient Today reported that Lebanon’s prisons were emptied on Tuesday of the final Hezbollah members held under the new law. Lebanon’s civil war concluded in 1990. Over one million people are currently displaced in Lebanon.

Talks were held between Israeli and Lebanese officials in Washington. @Jerusalem_Post reported that Ghaddar claimed the legislation was only “ink on paper so far,” as Beirut is unsure how to reassert its sovereignty without triggering a larger war.

She explained that authorities fear a civil war, though it would be more about the Lebanese state army fighting an insurgency. Ghaddar stated that a major issue is limiting actions to Hezbollah’s military capabilities, while their political and financial power remains intact. She warned that Iran would continue to send funds, allowing Hezbollah to rebuild.

@Jerusalem_Post reported that Hezbollah embedded itself within ministries, including health and financial sectors, creating complexities in removing the group. Ghaddar asserted that the majority in Lebanon holds Hezbollah responsible for their situation, not Israel, including many in its Shia base.

She said the Shia community sees that “the resistance has failed” after more than 40 years of narrative, now thinking practically due to lack of reconstruction.

Ghaddar noted that Lebanon was reduced to a “bargaining chip” for Iran. Recent developments, including talks in Washington, have been a “slap in the face” to Hezbollah supporters, as sacrifices were costly and counterproductive, Ghaddar said. She offered scenarios: Tehran surviving and Hezbollah regenerating, or Iran ceasing proxies, or Lebanon targeting all Hezbollah pillars with international pressure.

Ghaddar asserted, “As soon as the IRGC is done, Hezbollah will be done. She highlighted needs like the Lebanese army disarming Hezbollah, targeting customs officials, cleaning security institutions, and shutting down cash companies aiding money laundering. On borders, Ghaddar said she puts little weight on the new Damascus regime’s success in ridding Syria of Hezbollah, as they lack capacity.

She claimed Hezbollah produces mid-range missiles domestically from dual-use materials entering via ports and customs, with officials turning a blind eye.