Federal agencies examine former congressman's prediction market trades

Federal investigators are examining whether a former congressman placed bets on the prediction market Kalshi that appeared to profit from public statements later contradicted by his own posts. The Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission received a referral from Kalshi after the company detected trading activity tied to the former congressman's February appearance at a State of the Union address.

Three sources confirmed the referral went to offices in the Southern District of New York and Washington.

Call from the subject The reporter who published the initial account received a call from a blocked number the day after the story appeared. The caller disputed the reporting, stating that lawyers had contacted the Justice Department and found no record of an investigation.

During the same conversation the caller said the story would result in a gun being pointed at the reporter's face. When asked to clarify the remark, the caller replied that the reporter understood the meaning.

Subsequent denial After the call ended, the reporter sent a text message to a publicly listed number and received a reply claiming the original statement referred to the story blowing up in the reporter's face rather than a gun. The reply also described the reporter as an insane person and a clown.

The same day the caller posted on X that no threat had been made and accused the reporter of fabricating the exchange. The post stated that the reporter had demanded the names of lawyers and added an implied threat.