Federal Reserve Paper Finds Unauthorized Immigration Raised Local Home Prices and Rents While Adding One-for-One to Employment

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper found that a 1 percent increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows raised local home prices by about 2.2 percent and rents by roughly 1.4 percent. Fox News reported the results, which cover the period from March 2021 to March 2024.

The same study determined that a 1 percent rise in unauthorized workers relative to a local workforce corresponded with roughly a 1 percent increase in overall employment.

Illegal immigrant worker inflows increased local employment approximately one-for-one, and the paper found no evidence that the surge lowered average wages. Researchers estimated that illegal immigrant worker flows accounted for roughly 30 percent of employment growth in the average local labor market over the three-year span.

The inflows explained about 30 percent of home-price growth and roughly 20 percent of rent growth in the average metropolitan area during the same interval.

Net unauthorized immigration added roughly 7 million people to the U.S. population between 2021 and 2024, which the paper described as an unprecedented boom in illegal immigration. Areas with larger increases in unauthorized immigrant workers experienced declines in government transfer payments.

The authors noted that the paper is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment and that its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.