FOMC Minutes Highlight Dual-Sided Risks Amid Iran Conflict; Trader Profits $23M on S&P Calls Before Ceasefire

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the March 2026 meeting indicated that a growing number of policymakers saw a strong case for describing future rate decisions as involving two-sided risks.

These risks encompassed both upside pressures on inflation and downside risks to employment and growth. The discussion occurred against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Iran war, which contributed to the dual-sided assessment. LiveSquawk reported that policymakers highlighted the need for a balanced description in forward guidance.

ZeroHedge noted that the Fed perceived risks as 'dual sided' from the conflict. No contradictions appeared across sources on this point. The minutes were released on April 8, 2026, providing insights into the Fed's deliberations before the ceasefire announcement.

An unidentified trader bought 6,800 lots of S&P 500 Index (SPX) call options with a 6,950 strike price expiring May 8, 2026, for a $12 million premium.

m. 21. Hours later, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict, driving the index higher. By noon on April 8, with the S&P 500 at 6,773, the options traded at $50 each, valuing the position at $35 million and netting a $23 million paper profit after the premium, according to Bloomberg pricing data cited by ZeroHedge.

Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives intelligence at Susquehanna International Group, described the trade as an example of upside chasing on hopes of an imminent peace deal.

“This is an example of upside chasing on hopes of an imminent peace deal.”