Forecast Models Show Possible Strong El Niño in 2026 Could Reduce Some Crop Yields

A super El Niño is forecast to become very strong by winter 2026, with NOAA scientists confirming this week that an El Niño will develop in 2026. The event is defined by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that alter rainfall patterns across Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Risilience calculated that global agricultural output could lose $342 billion, measured in last year’s prices, under an average scenario for 11 major food commodities.

The commodities include grains, oils, coffee, cocoa, dairy and livestock, which together face combined yield losses of up to 14 percent. Andrew William Coburn, catastrophe modeller at Cambridge University and chairman of Risilience, said the modelling combines climate science forecasts with agricultural science and machine learning.

He added that smallholder farmers who depend on rainfed agriculture could be hit hard if they live in the worst-affected regions.

The World Meteorological Organization stated there is an 80-percent chance the warming El Niño phenomenon will develop between June and August 2026. Risilience scenarios include staple-crop price surges of 50 to 100 percent and possible rice export bans by India, Vietnam and Thailand that could remove millions of tonnes from the global market.

8 million people from El Niño through anticipatory action interventions.

Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Programme, said the agencies have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later. The UK government was scheduled to announce supply-chain due-diligence regulation by the end of March 2026 but has not done so more than two months later. The review forms part of the UK Trade Strategy announced last year.