Forecasters Predict Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2026

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts eight to 14 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with three to six expected to become hurricanes and one to three to reach major hurricane status. The agency attributes the below-average outlook to El Niño conditions that suppress storm formation over the open ocean. The season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Homeowners insurance rates in states such as Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are unlikely to fall despite the forecast. Pricing decisions rely on multi-decade catastrophe models rather than single-season predictions. NOAA last issued a below-normal forecast in 2015. Coastal premiums did not decrease meaningfully after that projection, and insurers continued to raise rates for reinsurance coverage.

Andrew in 1992 demonstrated that a single intense storm can produce major losses even in a quiet season. 5 billion in insured losses at the time. After Andrew, insurers shifted from historical averages to catastrophe models that emphasize extreme future losses.

These models give limited weight to annual forecasts such as the one released this week. NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said a single storm can still produce a very bad season regardless of the overall number of storms.