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Forecasts Indicate Possible Strong El Niño Event for California This Year
Meteorological forecasts suggest an El Niño event may develop later this summer, potentially becoming one of the strongest to affect Southern California. The event could lead to increased rainfall, replenishing water supplies and reducing wildfire risks, but also raise chances of flooding and coastal erosion. Experts note variability in past strong El Niño impacts on California's weather.
Apr 9, 9:00 AM·2m read1 source
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a forecast on Thursday indicating a more than 90% chance of an El Niño developing by fall and a 50% chance it will be at least a strong event. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reported that sea surface temperatures could exceed the seasonal average by 2 degrees Celsius.
NOAA estimates the odds of such warming by late fall at 1 in 4.
El Niño refers to warmer-than-average waters along the equatorial Pacific that influence global weather patterns. It forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, where changes in tropical trade winds allow warm seawater to shift eastward across the Pacific toward the Americas.
This warm water releases heat into the atmosphere, which can alter jet streams and direct storms toward Southern California and the southern United States.
The amount of warm water available for this year's event exceeds that during the 1997-98 El Niño, which was among the strongest of the century, according to Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Albany. That event brought a series of storms to California, causing flooding, debris flows, destruction of homes and roads, and 17 deaths.
Globally, it contributed to a deadly hurricane in Acapulco and severe drought in Indonesia.
predicts a roughly 20% chance that this year's El Niño could be stronger than any since the late 1870s, when droughts in India, China, and Israel resulted in an estimated 30 million to 40 million deaths.
Some experts classify El Niño events with sea surface temperatures exceeding the seasonal average by 2 degrees Celsius as "super" El Niño, which are rarer and associated with broader effects. U.S. Forest Service, described such events as the upper echelon of El Niño occurrences.
