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Gannett colonies at two sites recover from 2022 bird flu by 2041
A study projects that northern gannet populations at Bass Rock and Grassholm will not return to pre-outbreak levels before 2041. The 2022 H5N1 outbreak caused a fourfold rise in adult deaths and reduced colony sizes by 26% and 38%. Researchers recommend reviewing the species' conservation status.
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Populations of northern gannets at Bass Rock off Scotland's east coast and Grassholm off the Pembrokeshire coast in Wales are projected to need until at least 2041 to return to their size before the 2022 bird flu outbreak. A study by the RSPB found that adult deaths rose fourfold during the outbreak, cutting the Bass Rock colony by 26% and the Grassholm colony by 38%.
The H5N1 virus was first confirmed in gannets at Bass Rock on 4 June 2022 and at Grassholm the following month.
Background on the outbreak The H5N1 strain was first identified in poultry in Asia in 1996 and later spread to wild birds worldwide. The 2022 outbreak killed tens of thousands of seabirds across Scotland and Wales. Researchers noted that adult breeding birds are the main drivers of colony growth, so elevated adult mortality will slow recovery for years.
Conservation implications The study recommends that the IUCN Red List status of northern gannets, currently listed as least concern, be reassessed. Bass Rock, recently purchased by RSPB Scotland, is the world's largest northern gannet colony.
