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Report by German Defense Executives Estimates €500 Billion Cost for Greater European Military Autonomy
A paper published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy outlines ten central capability gaps Europe must address to act without U.S. military assistance. The authors, including Thomas Enders and René Obermann, estimate that €50 billion annual investment over the next decade would achieve substantial progress within three to five years.
May 7, 12:46 PM·2m read1 source
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U.S. military assistance. The paper was authored by Thomas Enders, Jeannette zu Fürstenberg, Moritz Schularick, René Obermann, and Nico Lange.
It states that Germany and Europe depend on the United States across the entire military-effect chain from satellite-based reconnaissance to battlefield fire control. Reaching defense autonomy would cost an estimated €150 billion to €200 billion by 2030 and €500 billion over the next decade. European sovereignty in defense would require investing around €50 billion per year for the next decade.
25% of GDP and is achievable with around 10% of total European defense spending. Current plans by European countries for higher defense spending only provide modest gains in European independence. ” Substantial progress toward autonomous European capacity to act is realistic within three to five years if pursued as a political priority within a joint European effort.
Far-reaching autonomy is achievable within five to 10 years under the same conditions. A substantial part of the identified capability gaps can be addressed within a few years provided appropriate political prioritization is in place. Cost estimates for programs proposed in the paper are subject to considerable uncertainty with deviations in the range of 20% to 30% to be expected.
The five authors are prominent German defense investors, experts and industry executives. The ten capability gaps include command and control, autonomous systems, deep strike, air defense, ballistic missile defense, satellite reconnaissance, communications, positioning navigation and timing, space launch, persistent airborne ISR, military cloud software and AI, strategic airlift and military-operational support, and electronic warfare and suppression of enemy air defenses.
