Report by German Defense Executives Estimates €500 Billion Cost for Greater European Military Autonomy

U.S. military assistance. The paper was authored by Thomas Enders, Jeannette zu Fürstenberg, Moritz Schularick, René Obermann, and Nico Lange.

It states that Germany and Europe depend on the United States across the entire military-effect chain from satellite-based reconnaissance to battlefield fire control. Reaching defense autonomy would cost an estimated €150 billion to €200 billion by 2030 and €500 billion over the next decade. European sovereignty in defense would require investing around €50 billion per year for the next decade.

25% of GDP and is achievable with around 10% of total European defense spending. Current plans by European countries for higher defense spending only provide modest gains in European independence. ” Substantial progress toward autonomous European capacity to act is realistic within three to five years if pursued as a political priority within a joint European effort.

Far-reaching autonomy is achievable within five to 10 years under the same conditions. A substantial part of the identified capability gaps can be addressed within a few years provided appropriate political prioritization is in place. Cost estimates for programs proposed in the paper are subject to considerable uncertainty with deviations in the range of 20% to 30% to be expected.

The five authors are prominent German defense investors, experts and industry executives. The ten capability gaps include command and control, autonomous systems, deep strike, air defense, ballistic missile defense, satellite reconnaissance, communications, positioning navigation and timing, space launch, persistent airborne ISR, military cloud software and AI, strategic airlift and military-operational support, and electronic warfare and suppression of enemy air defenses.

Establishing a European command-and-control capability could take three to four years and would cost anywhere from €10 billion to €20-plus billion.

U.S. defense-technology company Palantir. Building a sovereign European C2 and battle-management system is a priority, using Ukraine’s Delta system as a reference. Building sufficient capacity in scaled autonomous systems could take three to five years with a price tag of €30 billion or more.

Ground-based deep precision strike capability gap could be filled in three to five years within a cost envelope of €20 billion to €30 billion. Sixth-generation air combat systems would take 10 years or more and cost at least €200 billion including funding for two parallel sixth-generation development programs. Air defense capability gap total cost envelope is €50 billion.

Initial operating effectiveness in air defense could take three to five years while full build-out might require five to 10 years. The number one priority in satellite reconnaissance, communications, and positioning navigation and timing is to build a European equivalent to Starlink. Implementation should run through lead coalitions of countries rather than a new European super-structure.

The paper recommends a paradigm shift in procurement including prototype competitions rather than starting with hundreds of pages of specifications. ” Jeannette zu Fürstenberg is president of venture-capital firm General Catalyst. Moritz Schularick is president of the Kiel Institute.

René Obermann is Airbus Chairman and former Deutsche Telekom CEO. Nico Lange is a security analyst and former defense staffer. The authors wrote that Europe has the financial means, industrial base and technology to overcome its strategic dependencies, with the bottleneck being political will to coordinate, prioritize and break with decades of fragmentation.