Global Luxury Goods Sales Forecast to Rise 2-4 Percent in 2026

Global sales of personal luxury goods are forecast to grow between 2 percent and 4 percent in 2026, reaching 365 billion to 373 billion euros, according to a semi-annual study released Thursday. The projection follows two years of contraction and would mark an increase from 358 billion euros recorded last year.

The Americas are expected to lead the recovery, with some U.S. luxury brands reporting first-quarter growth of as much as 15 percent. U.S. shoppers have focused spending on casualwear, jewelry, and beauty products, with consumers under age 35 driving sales.

China is projected to return to growth, supported by online sales of ready-to-wear items. Europe continues to lag, mainly due to reduced tourism linked to geopolitical tensions.

Consumers are resuming purchases of apparel, handbags, and cosmetics despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Prices have stabilized after earlier steep increases, and brands have introduced more entry-level offerings. A partner at the consultancy stated that people are prioritizing quality of life and experiences over concerns about the future.

The same partner noted that brands must work to regain customer loyalty after recent price hikes. The base-case outlook assumes stabilization in Middle East conflicts, continued local spending, and gradual improvement in Chinese demand. A downside scenario projects flat growth, while reduced geopolitical tensions and faster Chinese growth could push the increase to as much as 6 percent.